A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
